Annual revenues from tokenised mobile payments - where account details are replaced with data useless to fraudsters - are set to exceed $40 billion by 2024, growing from an estimated $17 billion in 2019.

Of this, over $30 billion will be through remote e-commerce, rather than contactless payments at the point of sale.

This is according to analysis from Juniper Research, which found that the ability to use standard tokens and multifactor authentication protocols through Secure Remote Commerce will increase the use of such security measures in browser-based commerce; where previously it was mostly limited to native apps.

The report noted that this will be aided by 3D Secure 2.0 standards, which become mandatory for most payment networks worldwide. As a result, Juniper Research believes virtually all remote payments will be tokenised by 2024, along with all Near Field Communication (NFC) based payments.

The only places that will be exempt from this is emerging economies where local players do not necessarily adhere to EMVCo specifications.

The report suggested that over a third of tokens used for mobile payments will be persistent by 2024, thanks to universal card-on-file tokenisation systems that allow merchants to securely store payment credentials, as well as some smartphone vendors providing persistent NFC tokens.

Juniper Research expects the use of persistent tokens to decline for contactless payments, as solutions leveraging single-use tokens gain market share. However, the wider merchant ecosystem for remote payments is likely to keep persistent tokens in common usage over the next five years.

“Mobile payment involves a wide ecosystem of platforms, networks and devices,” remarked research author James Moar. “Many of these devices will not have sufficient hardware capacity to have strong on-device security, meaning cloud-based tokens will be necessary to ensure adequate security.”

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